Method

Method glossary

The concepts behind the tools — staking, price math, and the terms coined here.

Closing line value

The gap between the price you bet and the price the market closed at — the fastest honest read on whether a process is finding something real.

No-Show QuarterTigerPicks coinage

A quarter in which a team scores zero or three points — a failure to execute rather than a defensive stop, and a signal that the under is live.

What hold really costs you

The amount both sides of a market add up to above 100% — the book's cut, and the number every edge calculation has to be measured against.

Why a quarter of Kelly

Full Kelly assumes your win probability is exactly right; taking a quarter of it trades a little long-run growth for a lot of protection against being wrong about your own edge.

Betting math tools →

Math, not advice. 21+ where legal. If gambling stops being entertainment, call 1-800-GAMBLER.